Gauging voter interest in the election

Scott McClurg, Ph.D. Visiting lecturer in political science Arts & Sciences (314) 935-5838 sdmcclur@artsci.wustl.edu http://artsci.wustl.edu/~sdmcclur

Scott McClurg, Ph.D., a visiting lecturer in poltical science in Arts & Sciences, is teaching a course this semester on the 2000 elections. He has been following trends in polling data this campaign season and he says he's not surprised by Gore's recent lead in the polls.

"I feel that this is Gore's election to lose. Although Bush has run a very competitive campaign and has a chance to win, the booming economy and issues still favor the Gore campaign. That said, its close enough that Bush could win if the right things happen."

The public is not very engaged this election year, according to McClurg.

"Studies have shown that only about one-fourth of the population is actually paying attention to the election," he estimated, "although this is likely to rise a bit as we get closer to the election, as the debates take place, and now that the Olympics are over. That's pretty typical -- the 1992 election saw higher-than-usual voter interest, because the economy was in trouble and because of the Perot factor. Some commentators thought we might see a similar rise this year because of the closeness of the election, but so far, I don't think there's a whole lot of interest out there."

A native St. Louisan, McClurg also follows some issues of interest at the state and local level.

"Missouri, being a battleground state, is seeing a flurry of political activity this year -- commercials, candidate visits, etc. So Missouri voters are probably slightly more aware of the candidates and issues than your average American voter. Of course, I'm afraid that's not saying much."

McClurg also has examined how voters have reacted to changes in campaign strategies during various stages in the race.

"It's interesting to see how the Democrats, particularly after the Lieberman selection, have sought to position themselves as the 'party of values.' We'll see if they convince the voters of this. Personally, I think it'll be a tough sell."

McClurg earned a doctorate in political science from Washington University in 2000. His teaching interests include elections, political behavior, public opinion, political parties and interest groups. He has conducted research on a wide range of topics, including political participation, public opinion, electoral behavior, political geography, and campaign dynamics. His dissertation explores how social factors, such as political conversations, influence individual decisions to participate in the political process.